After Steady Declines in 2019, Luxury Home Prices are Stabilizing in Some U.S. Markets

luxury home pricesLuxury Home Price Report

According to Redfin, the average sale price for luxury homes in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent year-over-year to $1.6 million in the third quarter of 2019. Even though that’s essentially flat, it marks the first time luxury prices did not drop after three straight quarters of decline.

For this analysis, Redfin tracked home sales in more than 1,000 cities across the U.S. (not including New York City) and defines a home as luxury if it’s among the 5 percent most expensive homes sold in the quarter. In the other 95 percent of the market, home prices increased 3.6 percent annually to an average of $319,000 in the third quarter.

Sales of homes priced at or above $1.5 million rose 3.2 percent in the third quarter. The increase comes after three straight quarters of dipping sales in the luxury sector, including a 12 percent annual drop in the first quarter of 2019. Sales of homes priced below $1.5 million experienced a similar annual increase, with a 2.9 percent rise.

Supply of homes priced at or above $1.5 million rose 9.3 percent year-over-year in the third quarter, the sixth consecutive quarter of growth, albeit the smallest annual increase in a year.

The big increase in luxury supply was largely driven by a boost in the number of high-priced homes hitting the market. New listings priced at or above $1.5 million rose 6 percent year over year in the third quarter, while new listings of homes priced below $1.5 million dropped 4 percent.

“Because recession fears peaked over the summer, I expected luxury home prices and sales to dip. But it appears that nerves alone weren’t enough to scare off wealthy homebuyers,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, partly as a result of healthy consumer spending. Those results, along with flat luxury home prices and rising sales, go to show that Americans are basing their spending habits on their own personal financial situation rather than concerns about global economic tensions. For many, that means strong incomes and good employment prospects.”

Luxury U.S. housing market summary

Biggest luxury price gains

Luxury prices increased in more than two-thirds of the markets tracked by Redfin. West Palm Beach tops the list, with a 128.3 percent year-over-year increase to an average price of more than $3.7 million. It’s followed by two other cities in Florida: Clearwater (up 49.3% to $1.6 million) and Delray Beach (up 47.3% to $2.6 million).

West Palm Beach Redfin agent Elena Glatko said one driving force in the particularly large year-over-year price increase in West Palm Beach in the third quarter was dozens of sales in a new luxury condo building. Sale prices for individual units spanned from roughly $4 million to more than $12 million. Glatko also noted a few other factors that contribute to the area’s strong luxury market.

“Homebuyers can get a lot more for their money in West Palm Beach than in more expensive places like Miami and Palm Beach Island,” Glatko said. “And I’ve noticed that both luxury buyers and sellers feel that real estate is one of the assets least susceptible to economic changes. They believe that over time, luxury real estate is a better investment than the stock market.”

Biggest luxury price declines

Luxury home prices in Charleston, South Carolina declined 17.6 percent to an average of $1.6 million in the third quarter, a bigger drop than any other city. Next come Virginia Beach (down 7.6% to $1 million) and Reno (down 6.9% to about $1.5 million).

Luxury prices also declined in San Diego (down 4% to about $2.6 million), Miami (down 3.8% to about $2 million), San Jose (down 3.2% to about $2.3 million) and Scottsdale (down 1.5% to about $2 million).

“There’s been less activity in the luxury market in Miami over the last few years, and now it’s definitely shifting toward buyer’s favor,” said local Redfin agent Jessica Johnson. “Sellers in the area can’t get away with overpricing their home because buyers are less willing to overpay when they know luxury prices aren’t increasing in Miami–if they can’t get a good deal on one particular luxury home, they can probably go down the street or to another neighborhood and find a seller who is willing to negotiate with them.”

 

World Property Journal November, 2019

Luxury Homes Sales Strong in Sarasota

Luxury

In luxury residential real estate, the first half of 2019 demonstrated the strength of the top-tier market. One of the things that Southwest Florida can usually bank on is people with deep pockets, usually stuffed with cash, buying multi-million-dollar homes.

 

The evidence:

• “It’s been a great year so far,” said Roger Pettingell, associated with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate and a waterfront real estate specialist based on Longboat Key. “With over $60 million in pending sales, we are on track to break the $100 million mark. … We are ahead of last year at this time. June has been particularly good for the upper end. We have been working with multiple buyers and have received three offers over $3 million in June. We put one of our $4 million-plus listings under contract in June.” Pettingell and his team reached a record $106 million last year, his first in triple million digits.

• “The luxury market has led the charge for our business,” said Joel Schemmel, associated with Premier Sotheby’s International Realty and based in downtown Sarasota. “Our sales overall have been great in the last six months. We closed $57 million in all of 2018. So far in 2019, we have closed over $45 million and have another $5 plus million pending. The showing activity in the last several months has also been solid in the luxury and ultra-luxury market. Therefore, I expect the sales to continue.”

• “Ultra luxury is selling. I track this market,” said Georgina Clamage, the manager of Michael Saunders & Co.’s Longboat Key office. “Our area is becoming more attractive to the affluent.”

Past headlines indicate the enduring allure of luxury living: In 2006, unlike the rest of the area’s real estate market, $10 million-plus listings remain a bright spot. Seven years later, in 2013, a $10 million home sales on Siesta Key were part of a luxury resurgence as the region continued to exit the effects of the Great Recession.

Quantifying luxury

A basement price point of $5 million defines the ultra-luxury market. Mere luxury starts at $3 million, though some quarters drop that figure to a pedestrian $1 million. During the first six months of this year, 41 homes sold above the $3 million threshold. Last year, that number was 56. While the number of luxury sales is down year over year, average prices are 5% higher and time on the market shorter, Clamage said.

In the Sarasota-Manatee-Charlotte region, ultra-luxury homes on the islands are an especially hot commodity.

Siesta and Casey keys are particularly popular, Clamage said, with seven sales on Siesta and five on Casey, both figures up from 2018′s first two quarters. Longboat Key, with a whole lot more pricey properties, claimed nine sales, down two from 2018.

Many buyers are coming from high-tax states — including California and New York — that got worse after federal tax laws clamped down on deductions for state and local taxes, including property tax writeoffs. “The tax impact is definitely helping us,” Clamage said.

June’s top sale

Deborah Beacham, a Realtor with Michael Saunders & Co., scored a double victory in the $6.725 million transaction for the island residence at 2016 Casey Key Road on Blackburn Bay. She was both the listing and selling agent for the 7,508-square-foot home.

That monetary figure easily surpassed the second-place sale, $4.6 million for 7224 Point of Rocks Road on Siesta Key’s Gulf side. Judie Berger of Premier Sotheby’s listed the home, and Lisa Warren of Own SRQ LLC brought the buyer.

Beacham is having a good year, placing fourth, too, with the sale of her $3.35 million listing also on Casey Key Road.

All told, June saw 13 homes sell for $2 million or higher, with four of those surpassing $3 million. Single-family homes almost pitched a shutout, but one condo got on the list.

Cash paid off eight of those transactions. “That’s typical in that price range,” Clamage said.

2019′s winner (so far)

Debra Pitell-Hauge and Barbara May, come on down. The listing and buyer’s agents respectively, both with Michael Saunders, didn’t have to haggle over the price in their January transaction. The buyer paid full fare, $9.85 million for the residence at 1233 Hillview Drive, on Sarasota Bay, in the Harbor Acres neighborhood.

That represents the highest sale in Sarasota County since 2014.

Second place, in a tie, went to Pettingell as listing agent for a Longboat Key beachfront estate in Regent Court. The $7.5 million sale in April came with a distinction — as the highest Longboat Key sale recorded through the Multiple Listing Service in eight years.

Ian Addy and Gail Wittig of Michael Saunders brought the buyer for the sale of the off-market beachfront estate, portending a possible trend in transactions where a property does not enter the open market.

Schemmel also recorded a $7.5 million sale — for the residence at 8218 Sanderling Road on Siesta Key. That transaction, though, came with its own distinction — extra dollar signs since Schemmel earned both buyer and seller commissions.

As far as real estate companies, Saunders stands head and shoulders above the competition in representing either buyers or sellers. So far this year, the regional brokerage handled 40% of the market. Of the 82 sides in the 41 transactions (either buyer or seller), Saunders brought 33 home.

Four of those sales took home 100% of the asking price. The majority of buyers pitched counter offers that landed in the 80s and 90s. One of the two outliers only fetched 58%, plunging from $10.9 million to $6.235 million. A property is only worth what someone will pay for it.

Billionaire buyers

This puts luxury real estate in a perspective of extravagance gone wild.

The most expensive sale of an American home occurred in January for an unfinished 79th-floor penthouse on Billionaires’ Row in Manhattan. Imagine paying $238 million for a residence you’re unlikely to use as anything more than a palatial hotel room instead of a primary residence.

American hedge fund multi-billionaire Kenneth C. Griffin — founder and CEO of the Chicago-based global investment firm Citadel and one of the richest men in the world — padded his pad holdings with this purchase. Griffin already owns a $60 million penthouse in Miami, and a $122 million mansion in London, among other trophy homes. That Miami deal set a record for a Miami-Dade residential sale. His January 2019 purchase of the top four floors of a Gold Coast condo tower for $58.5 million eclipsed the previous high mark in Chicago. And the London acquisition broke the city’s old record.

During recent years, Griffin has spent more than $750 million on homes in Chicago, New York, Miami, Palm Beach and London. He owns $230 million in Palm Beach property alone, various media outlets have reported. The New York Times described the 50-year-old’s latest acquisition as setting a “new standard for conspicuous consumption.”

That $238 million would pay the price for almost every single affordable house on the market in North Port, equaling the 1,133 homes in that Florida city priced at or below $216,388. Redfin’s analysis calls homes priced at that mark affordable, employing various data points.

While the luxury market is robust in the city, the Wall Street Journal described New York City’s top-tier condo market as “reeling,” with few indications of a rebound this year. Prices for condos $5 million and up plunged 28 percent in 2018.

Overall, though, New York City reigns as home to the most billionaires in the world — 85 — and that point is driving the city’s luxury housing prices higher, according to a report from the research arm of Savills, a global real estate services provider. Billionaires have helped propel ultra-prime property prices up 15% over the past five years.

Fun fact: In the global billionaire population, New York is followed by Hong Kong (79), Moscow (71), Beijing (61) and London (55).

Sales across Southern California are slumping, too, accompanied by price cuts. “After seven years of jaw-dropping growth, L.A.’s real estate market — including its luxury sector — has officially slowed,” the Hollywood Reporter stated in March.

Developer Bruce Makowsky built what looks like a five-star resort atop a Bel Air hill, but it’s a spec home that he dubbed Billionaire. It was listed in January 2017 as the most expensive in the country, with the asking price setting a record at $250 million. Today, the empty residence — which the Los Angeles Times described as “an extravagant mega-mansion doubling as a monument to opulence” — now lists for $150 million.

Who doesn’t need 21 bathrooms, five bars, three kitchens, a 40-seat movie theater and a four-lane Louis Vuitton bowling alley? And an auto gallery jammed with a $30-million fleet of glamorous cars and motorcycles — including a custom Rolls-Royce. Should it sell for $150 million, it would become the most expensive home ever sold in Los Angeles County.

The current record holder, a chateau in Holmby Hills built by film and television producer Aaron Spelling, sold for $120 million in an all-cash deal, according to reports. The transaction closed last month. Another fun fact: The interior covers about an acre. That eclipsed the previous record. An oceanfront property in Malibu’s Carbon Beach sold last year for $110 million.

Closer to home

The emperor of home sales in the Sarasota-Manatee-Charlotte region? Nowhere near those deals. The home at 1067 Westway Drive in the Lido Shores neighborhood on the northwest side of Lido Key went for $13 million in a March 2006 all-cash transaction.

That comes from MLS records dating back to 1900.

Of the top 24 listings, all sold for $7.5 million and above, and cash completed 15 transactions. Nothing earlier than November 2004 made the sold list, though a home built in 1938 did.

It’s only up from here

“Today, $1 million won’t get you a luxury home in most major markets,” Javier Vivas, director of economic research for Realtor.com, stated in one of the Luxury Home Index reports from last year.

In another report last Tuesday, UCLA real estate professor Paul Habibi told the Los Angeles Times that the $120 million sale is a good sign for developers seeking massive sums for their estates because of the precedent it sets. “If $120 million is the new benchmark, that makes it more plausible to sell a home for $75 million or $100 million,” he said. Must be just California, or wherever billionaires want to hang out.

Up and up we go. That kind of astronomical money puts the luxury market here in a somewhat sensible perspective and less outlandish.

Herald-Tribune July 9, 2019

Sarasota Luxury Market at the Top in the Nation

Sarasota Luxury MarketSouthwest Florida — the Sarasota metro area in particular — has a reputation for its wealth of gold-plated residences. The latest Luxury Home Index from realtor.com validates that celebrity status, or, from another viewpoint, notoriety.

In the site’s May report of the top 10 fastest-growing U.S. luxury markets nationwide, the Sarasota-Manatee market stood atop the list. Collier County, near Naples, came in third in the rankings of the percentage increase of the top 5 percent of the most expensive home-sales prices.

The overall transaction total doesn’t matter. Sarasota’s entry-level luxury price rose 19.1 percent year over year, reaching $993,000,

Whether that sales price merits the luxury label is debatable. By many measures, a home’s sales price must reach at least $1 million before entering the so-called luxury market. But who’s quibbling over Sarasota falling $7,000 short?

Roger Pettingell, a luxury waterfront specialist with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, cites two price points for opulent status.

“Coldwell Banker’s starting price for what we consider a Global Luxury listing is $1.2 million,” he said this week. “More anecdotally, I consider a luxury Sarasota property to be one which is priced over $3 million.”

Let’s stick with that higher figure, since many a million-dollar home on the water ranks as a tear-down. Plus, there are a lot of $3 million homes on the market, 129 to be exact. The top dog comes with a whopping $19.5 million price tag. That’s 19,300 square feet at $3,884.57 for one square.

Of the 79 that recently sold, the highest sale reached $9 million for 9,202 square feet, and that’s with an $800,000 cut-off list. That’s also thousands more per square foot — $6,448.41.

The average and median list price of all those $3 mil-plus homes stand at more than $5 million. The median closing, though, was $3.6 million.

Luxury homes, luxury prices, indeed.

The lowest on the market and sold went for exactly $3 million each, a veritable bargain at a mere $428.41 per square foot.

Michael Saunders & Co. currently has 45 active listings in the $3 million-plus range. Last month countywide, sales of seven homes in that price category were closed, a 75 percent increase over the four in May 2017, said Samantha Emelock, a Saunders communications specialist.

Saunders recently closed on two big sales in Sarasota, at $7 million and $5.4 million.

Collier’s $1.65 million sales mark is only surpassed by three California counties, but the percentage increase for all three Silicon Valley counties did not beat Collier’s.

Prospective home buyers from northern states are propelling the two Florida markets, realtor.com reported, not residents trying to escape the super-heated West Coast.

“Luxury prices in the Sunshine State are rising quickly as buyers from places like New York, Boston and Chicago get wind that there is a better bang for their buck available down South,” Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com, said in a news release. “Meanwhile, we’re seeing signs of a luxury-market glut in many established markets, which is in some cases leading to spillover demand for their less-pricey neighbors.”

No warning signs here.

“Is there a glut of luxury properties for sale?” asked Longboat Key-based Pettingell? “If you say a luxury property is any property over $3 million, there is less than a two-year supply of properties of $3 million.

“There is certainly not a glut of those premium, market-priced properties, which tend to sell much more quickly,” Pettingell said.

From Jan. 1, 2018, to date, Coldwell Banker in Sarasota has sold or held a contract on 25 properties over $3 million and Pettingell sold seven, said Laitin Schwerin, a senior public relations specialist in a Sarasota Coldwell Banker office. During that same time span in 2017, the company sold 20 properties in that price range, and Pettingell sold six.

Apparently, if you list a luxury home, someone will come to buy.

Sarasota Herald-Tribune June 22, 2018