Southwest Florida’s residential real estate world is riding a winning streak, and current market conditions indicate continuing prosperity and growth. That’s the consensus evaluation of the robust home market in 2017 and the strong forecast for 2018 among industry insiders in Sarasota and Manatee counties.

Our informal survey panel represents the home-building and selling sides of the business. Their letter grades for this year’s residential market mostly fit into a tight and bright range — from B++ to A+.

“Residential real estate in Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties, in all price points, all home types, continued its consistent momentum through 2017,” reports Michael Saunders, founder and CEO of Michael Saunders & Company, and Drayton Saunders, president. “Buyer demand has been consistently high and rising, inventory was strong and is expected to rise, and prices are seeing an appropriately steady increase.

“In general, it is a neutral market — neither favoring buyers or sellers in any significant capacity, therefore garnering an A-grade.”

Roger Pettingell, a perennial leader in luxury sales and listings and an associate with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, agrees on a neutral market. “The stock market gains of 2017 are translating into strong cash buyers coming into the market. That said, sellers are also feeling quite confident, making for neither a seller nor buyer’s market (which makes a Realtor’s job more difficult!).”

Pettingell, based on Longboat Key, broke the $100 million sales mark for 2017 with a total of $104.6 million, leading the region.

“Using my business as a microcosm of the overall Sarasota market, I’d give this season an A+,” he said. “Not only was it a record breaking year for me, it was a record by 25 percent over last year. If that doesn’t deserve an A, I don’t know what does.”

Lynn Robbins, a Realtor with some four decades selling Sarasota homes and an associate with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, views 2017 as “a strong sellers market.”

“My rating would be a B++ to A- … In my opinion, Sarasota has really been discovered, and the buyers are coming in larger numbers and we are seeing more of them in slower months,” she said.

Xena Vallone, broker/owner of Xena Vallone Realty Inc. and the outgoing president of the Realtors Association of Sarasota Manatee, broke the market in two. “I would rate 2017 residential as an A for sellers because of low inventory, which benefited them by higher prices, but most likely a C for buyers for the same reasons — low inventory and higher prices. I didn’t give it a D because I believe buyers are still getting some great interest rates.”

Lakewood Ranch-based homebuilder and developer Pat Neal of Neal Communities also enjoyed a stellar year. “Certainly 2017 would be an A or an A+. For our target customer (about 55 percent of whom do not have Florida as their address at the time of their first purchase), this has been a great year,” he said.

With 47 years in home construction and sales, Neal Communities has created some 70 successful communities throughout southwest Florida. To date, Neal has built more than 13,000 homes in the region. In 2017, the company built, sold and closed on about 1,168 new homes — topping the previous record year. Sales of new homes totaled $400 million, Neal noted.

Most of those homes — 80 percent — sold in the $250,000 to $500,000 range, the “Marvelous Middle,” as Neal describes the price spread, a range that Realtors find most appealing among buyers.

Across the Sarasota-Manatee-Charlotte market, moderately priced home sales — between $200,000 and $400,000 — “continue to be very strong,” Saunders said, with a 9 percent increase in pending and sold listings year-over-year and an 11 percent increase in the number of new listings over last year.

“Homes in this price range make up the largest segment of our market at 44 percent of total sales,” Saunders said. “With high demand and an average supply, this will force buyers to move quickly and possibly deal with multiple offer situations.”

In the midprice market — from $400,000 to $900,000, which comprises 15 percent of the market — new listings fell in 2017, sales dropped at the lower end and were flat at the higher prices. Sarasota proved to be the exception, Saunders said, with a 30 percent increase in pending sales in November.

Across the three counties, the residential luxury market — $1 million and higher, with sales representing 3 percent of the total market — went from fairly calm waters to a tsunami over the course of 2017. Closed sales were up only 4 percent in the first six months year-over-year, but surged a “staggering 61 percent from July to November,” Saunders said. Pending sales rose 18 percent in the first half of 2017, but soared a “staggering 59 percent” from July to November.

Despite the market hiccup brought about by Hurricane Irma in September, home sales rebounded quickly. Robbins certainly enjoyed autumn. “I was pleasantly surprised in October and November, which have been slower in the past, to find out that they were very busy months for me,” she said.

Multiple Listing Service data for the Sarasota-Manatee-Charlotte market confirm that point. In November, closed sales reached 546, an 8.8 percent increase from the same month a year ago. Plus, there were 677 new pending contracts, up year-over-year by 16.5 percent.

The Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee describes the current housing sector as a “healthy market” with combined numbers showing an increase in sales, new listings and prices.

The housing market across Florida also continued its positive streak in November, with more closed sales, more new listings, more pending sales and rising median prices, Florida Realtors data shows.

“In November, Florida’s housing market reflected the trends we’ve grown accustomed to seeing throughout this year,” said Florida Realtors President Maria Wells, broker-owner with Lifestyle Realty Group in Stuart.

The year ahead

The final months of 2017 created enthusiasm for 2018.

“I think the momentum which we are seeing, particularly in the last quarter of 2017, will move us forward with a strong 2018,” Pettingell said. “We do know that the real estate market has been in a recovery mode since 2011, and that no market goes up forever, but it looks like there is still plenty of room for further growth in 2018.”

Out-of-state buyers are key players in a strong market.

“Demand is rising, and we feel that it is going to be a busy season with more buyers here than ever before,” Robbins said. “We are seeing more buyers from California and New York than in past years.”

Neal concurs in regards to the market for new homes. He cites the Sunshine State’s broad appeal to out-of-state buyers as one reason the market is flourishing.

“People from Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York and Connecticut are finding their way to Florida because of our good quality of life, beautiful environment, good economy and low taxes,” he said. “There has been much more awareness as to the economic advantages of living in Florida. That is, our good and growing economy and also the absence of a state income tax … or estate tax.”

Saunders, too, sees prospective buyers focusing on new construction. “Builders are still answering the pent-up buyer demand for ‘new.’ … Home buyers are electing to purchase a new home over an existing home because of upgrade options, new layout trends and hurricane-resistant materials and construction codes.”

Jon Mast, the chief executive officer of the Manatee-Sarasota Building Industry Association, spotted another current trend — “for new product in Lakewood Ranch becoming more desirable than resales of the same product, thereby lowering prices for same existing product in the Ranch. This will eventually level out over time.”

Saunders links the popularity of new neighborhoods to lifestyle options. “New construction will continue to push forward, especially in areas like West Villages in Venice and Waterside in Lakewood Ranch. The allure of new construction and communities with a plethora of amenities will be in high demand.”

The political climate could be a boon for Florida. With passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, the limit on deductible mortgage debt was dropped to $750,000 for loans taken out after Dec. 14. But the implication for Florida real estate lies elsewhere: The measure eliminates deductions of more than $10,000 in state and local taxes from federal tax returns. That could result in a major increase in the tax liabilities for people who itemize deductions and who reside in high-tax states — most probably upper-middle or upper class taxpayers. This, Saunders could bring “a surge of sales in Florida.”

Neal is more emphatic, anticipating a “positive impact” of the federal tax measure on Florida. A key reason is because Neal Communities’ “customers are typically not dependent on mortgage financing, they will not be affected by the mortgage limitations nor some of the limitations on deductibility,” he said.

“We seem to have a strength in the economy. The federal tax reform act will provide further stimulus.”

Neal cautioned against thinking another housing bubble is in the works. “We do not have the building we had in 2003-2006 … but only about one half of the housing production that we had in 2004 (in 2017).”

Another barrier to an overheated real estate market comes as a reaction to that financial crisis — stronger consumer protections. “As credit is so regulated,” Neal said, “I do not see a repeat of the 2003-2006 credit bubble.”

Hot spots

There is broad agreement that downtown Sarasota “is very hot,” as Robbins said, and “with all the charm of our downtown, great restaurants, things to do and close to the arts and Van Wezel, people want to live there and be able to walk to many of these attractions.”

Saunders echoes that sentiment: “Downtown’s residential construction explosion will be a great positive to the downtown commercial and retail sub-market. The growing live-work-play environment in downtown will remain a draw for people from all over the region.”

Besides Lakewood Ranch, the West Villages and the University Parkway corridor, other desirable neighborhoods “will be west of the Trail as buyers want to be close to the water,” Robbins said.

All the barrier islands will continue to be popular, especially Siesta Key with one of the best known beaches in the world. “There are numerous wonderful choices of condos in all price ranges there and one can walk to the beach,” Robbins said.

Herald Tribune December 2017